I note right up front that my comments below on the medical device excise tax are pure speculation on my part, a kind of thought experiment rather than a hard prediction of the future.
If you believe in “rational actors” on economic choices (a whole other discussion), then it would make no sense for the Government to tax firms into bankruptcy and thereby lose the tax on those lost sales. So if the outcry from the medical device industry causes the Government to tweak the excise tax, then what might change?
I maintain that no one can know the future with certainty, including outcomes if the Medical Device Excise Tax goes into effect as currently planned. I’m tossing out five possibilities below, and intend to come back to posts on the excise tax in the future after the dust settles.